Tesla Will Multiply Car Sales with new Pickup Truck, Self-Driving and Model Y

Brian Wang |
February 1, 2019 |

Tesla plans to go to multiples of Model 3 with the Model Y, Tesla Pickup truck and self-driving cars. They project the Model Y production and demand will be 50% more than Model 3 and could end up being double.

Model Y will have low volume production in early 2020 and then high volume production late in 2020. Elon Musk has learned a lesson and will not predict the rate of the ramp of the Model Y.

Tesla Pickup Truck

The Tesla pickup truck might be revealed this summer. Pickup trucks are almost 20% of US car sales. Elon Musk is super-excited about the innovative design of the new Tesla Pickup truck. They are iterating on the design now.

Below is a recording of the recent Tesla earnings call. The earnings call starts at about 33:30 minutes into the video.

The ten page quarterly report is online.

The Model Y will have 76% parts in common with the Model 3. Model Y and Model 3 will share the same factory and much of their assembly lines.

Tesla has $3.7 billion in cash. They have an operating margin of 5.7%.


Even if there is a global recession, they expect a 50% growth in car deliveries in 2019. Deliveries and growth could be a lot more than that 50% number.


Tesla could sell 350,000 to 500,000 model 3 in 2019.

Tesla issues for China and Europe are how to build and get the cars over to those markets. They need to get those cars there as fast as possible. Demand is not the issue.

Self-driving Timeline

Full self-driving is already available on the highway. In a few weeks, full self-driving talk and confirm will be available in areas like the USA where it is permitted. They are working on traffic lights and intersections and complex parking lots. In February, they will be releasing advanced summon features.

They are at about 98% reliable on self-driving but it needs to be 99.99% reliable. Tesla thinks full self-driving should be good in their metric at the end of this year, but regulatory approvals will take longer.

Elon Musk thinks Tesla has far more self-driving miles from their vehicles than any other company. Waymo is number 2 but Tesla will soon have 1 million customers using self-driving and providing data to train Tesla self-driving systems.

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